The only constant in American politics is the fact that each election cycle has its surprises. This, along with good drama makes election interesting, entertaining, and often really nail-biting.
No matter how much data is analyzed or how many surveys are taken, it’s inevitable that the experts will be wrong. We’ve actually been doing it worse than ever, even with all the advances in data and knowledge. What is the secret to this?
This election is a great example of how convenient narratives can lure us. History is one of our most obvious tools. To project the future, we look back on the past election experience. This can lead to a lot of misinformation and confusion. It leads to the same thinking that I hear from insiders in politics: “X won’t happen because X never has happened before.”
You have then a Black president. A real estate scammer from New York City. A peanut farmer in Georgia. An actor from California. It was all possible. They happened until they did. The only rule is that things are impossible in politics – until they become possible.
Let’s take a look at November 2022, the Big Blue Surprise. A red wave was forecasted in this election using historical data. Only two midterm elections have the party of President Trump been held since 1934.Not One of the House seats that was lost to the incumbent simply because of a blush of support after 9/11.
Additionally, the Republicans have won redistricting battles in most instances over the past decade and are therefore likely to win seats as a result.
Added to that, Republicans appeared on the offensive regarding three major issues plaguing Democrats: crime and the state of the economy.
Many criticize reporters for writing analyses and making predictions in their Washington DC offices and not being on the ground throughout the country.
Wait a minute. This kind of anecdotal canvassing is often misleading, as I know. This is the job I did for the weekly political series.The CircusShowtime: I spent the majority of my fall travels all across America. This included stops at truck stops, buses tours, coffee shops and house parties. Since 2016, my “momentum testing” has been based on observations I make on the ground during the two weeks preceding an election. For example, I learned something from my fieldwork at the hustings six-years ago.Hillary Clinton–Donald Trump face-off. Yes. I believed that Clinton would win, as did 99% of Americans. However, it was seven days before the voters went to polls that I asserted this.Megyn KellyFox News’s “The Heartland” shows that someone out in the middle of the campaign, during which they are often in the thick of politics, can usually get a feel for the direction of the momentum. Trump appeared to be able to control the winds.
These winds also blew in an apparent discernible direction this November. FromCircus In the last few days of campaign, put on an extensive blitz in 17 states. You would have likely guessed that the result was a red wave judging by the enthusiasm and size of the crowds.
New Hampshire is a great example. Democratic senatorMaggie Hassan Until the last weeks, when the polls indicated tightening of the race, she seemed to be in good shape. Her campaign headquarters was small when I attended. The small number of her supporters were earnest and committed. They weren’t excited, however. However, Hassan, a Trump-approved opponent and MAGA-leaning MAGA-leaning candidate, was backed by a retired Army General.Don Bolduc, He held one of many town hall meetings, drawing a large crowd of enthusiastic and committed supporters.